Author Topic: Tau Averages  (Read 2508 times)

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Highland_Piper

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Tau Averages
« on: November 20, 2009, 08:14:40 AM »
I will be adding more to this thread as I have time to.  I'm looking for a good odds calculator for 2d6 rolls still.

Tau have a BS of 3 so they have a 50% to hit their targets.

Pulse Rifles and Carbine Rifles have a Strength 5

Tau Firewarriors vs. Space Marines Tactical Squad

Average of 50% of the squad should hit
Strength 5 vs. Toughness 4 = 66.66% chance to wound
Space Marines have a 3+ save = 66.66% chance to save

So if a squad of 12 Firewarriors faces a squad of 10 Space Marines, on the average you would get 6 hits, 3.996 wounds, and 2.6637336 marines would save.  So the average of one Space Marine would die.  An average of 3 Space Marines for two full squads (24 Firewarriors).

Based on the previous scenario if you were using Carbine Rifles, Leadership 8.  So if you wound a marine they have 72.22% chance of passing their leadership.

If the Space Marines were within the 12" Rapid Fire on the average you should hit 12 times, wound 7.9992 Marines, 5.33226672 Marines would save and you would kill (rounded up) 3 marines.

Getting Shot At

I'm going to assume that the squad would be reduced to at least an 8 man squad give the range of Tau weapons.

BS 4
Bolter is S 4

We are assuming that the 8 Marines will get within 12" of the 12 Firewarriors (easy to do for a Carbine Squad)

The Marines get a 66.66% chance to hit.  so they should hit 5.3328 FireWarriors.
Strength 4 vs. Toughnes 3 is 3+ to wound.  3.55484448 FireWarriors will be wounded
Tau FireWarriors get a 4+ save, which is 50% chance of saving.  1.77742224 FireWarriors would save (2.2217778 Firewarriors if it was a 10 man squad.)

Now with Rapid Fire

The Marines hit 10.6656 FireWarriors, Wound 7.10968896 Fire Warriors, 3.55484448 FireWarriors will save (4.4435556 out of 8.8871112 Firewarriors will have saved if it was a 10 man squad).
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 06:00:00 PM by Guest »

Highland_Piper

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Re: Tau Averages
« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2010, 01:51:05 AM »
Heresy now has a combat calculator!  Now I don't have to do it manually  :o

So I'm going to start over using the Heresy Combat Calculator

First off is a squad of 6 Tau Firewarriors vs. 5 Space Marines
Quote
Shooting

Tau Firewarriors vs Space Marines

Calculations by Heresy Combat Calculator™ (powered by HAMulator™)

-----------------------------

Attackers

Tau Firewarriors
Shots: 6
Hit Chance: 50%
Hits: 3
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 2
Unsaved Wounds: 0.667
Models Killed: 0.667

-----------------------------

Defenders

Space Marines
Hits: 3
Wounds: 2
Saves: 1.333
Wounds Lost: 0.667
Models Lost: 0.667 / 5 (13.3%)

-----------------------------
Heresy Combat Calculator™ (powered by HAMulator™)

Quote
Shooting

Tau Firewarriors (rapid fire) vs Space Marines

Calculations by Heresy Combat Calculator™ (powered by HAMulator™)

*Note: I left the above link just as it was copied and pasted.  In order for the links to work on DC (and most other web forums) you need to remove the " after the Attackers[/u]

Tau Firewarriors (rapid fire)
Shots] 12
Hit Chance: 50%
Hits: 6
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 4
Unsaved Wounds: 1.333
Models Killed: 1.333

-----------------------------

Defenders

Space Marines
Hits: 6
Wounds: 4
Saves: 2.667
Wounds Lost: 1.333
Models Lost: 1.333 / 5 (26.7%)
Chance to fallback: 27.78%

-----------------------------
[url=http://www.heresy-online.net/combatcalculator/]Heresy Combat Calculator™ (powered by HAMulator™)


As you can see, even with rapid fire a squad of 6 Firewarriors does not do much against the smallest of Space Marine Squads.  The best bet when fighting Marines (Imperial or Chaos) is squads of 12 or 2 squads of 6.


Quote
Shooting

Tau Firewarriors, Tau Firewarriors vs Space Marines

Calculations by Heresy Combat Calculator™ (powered by HAMulator™)

-----------------------------

Attackers

Tau Firewarriors
Shots: 6
Hit Chance: 50%
Hits: 3
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 2
Unsaved Wounds: 0.667
Models Killed: 0.667

Tau Firewarriors
Shots: 6
Hit Chance: 50%
Hits: 3
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 2
Unsaved Wounds: 0.667
Models Killed: 0.667

-----------------------------

Defenders

Space Marines
Hits: 6
Wounds: 4
Saves: 2.667
Wounds Lost: 1.333
Models Lost: 1.333 / 5 (26.7%)
Chance to fallback: 27.78%

-----------------------------
Heresy Combat Calculator™ (powered by HAMulator™)

Yes I know it is the same as the one squad of size rapid fire.  However lets looks at the rapid fire results


Quote
Shooting

Tau Firewarriors, Tau Firewarriors vs Space Marines

Calculations by Heresy Combat Calculator™ (powered by HAMulator™)

-----------------------------

Attackers

Tau Firewarriors
Shots: 12
Hit Chance: 50%
Hits: 6
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 4
Unsaved Wounds: 1.333
Models Killed: 1.333

Tau Firewarriors
Shots: 12
Hit Chance: 50%
Hits: 6
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 4
Unsaved Wounds: 1.333
Models Killed: 1.333

-----------------------------

Defenders

Space Marines
Hits: 12
Wounds: 8
Saves: 5.333
Wounds Lost: 2.667
Models Lost: 2.667 / 5 (53.3%)
Chance to fallback: 27.78%

-----------------------------
Heresy Combat Calculator™ (powered by HAMulator™)

So the results are much better.  The thing about taking two 6 man teams instead of one 12 man team is that if one gets assaulted it will give time for the second 6 man team to retreat and prepare to open fire at the exposed marines once they kill the first Firewarrior team (and you know they will)

Now the results there are not accurate as the first firing you should have taken out at least one of the marines.  Making it easier to finish off the squad in the second turn of shooting.  Lets look at a full game exchange.

Turn One

Tau guns get 30" over the Space Marines 24" so we will let them go first

Quote
Attackers

Tau Firewarriors
Shots: 6
Hit Chance: 50%
Hits: 3
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 2
Unsaved Wounds: 0.667
Models Killed: 0.667

Tau Firewarriors
Shots: 6
Hit Chance: 50%
Hits: 3
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 2
Unsaved Wounds: 0.667
Models Killed: 0.667

-----------------------------

Defenders

Space Marines
Hits: 6
Wounds: 4
Saves: 2.667
Wounds Lost: 1.333
Models Lost: 1.333 / 10 (13.3%)

12 shots and only 1 kill.  OUCH!  But range is a Tau's best friend.  The Space Marines are over their 24" range and even moving they will not get into to required Bolt Gun 12" move and fire.  So we are going to have the Space Marines move 6" and run 4" (giving them a slightly better than average run roll).  This brings the Space Marines within 20" of the Firewarriors.

Turn Two

Quote
Attackers

Tau Firewarriors
Shots: 6
Hit Chance: 50%
Hits: 3
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 2
Unsaved Wounds: 0.667
Models Killed: 0.667

Tau Firewarriors
Shots: 6
Hit Chance: 50%
Hits: 3
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 2
Unsaved Wounds: 0.667
Models Killed: 0.667

-----------------------------

Defenders

Space Marines
Hits: 6
Wounds: 4
Saves: 2.667
Wounds Lost: 1.333
Models Lost: 1.333 / 9 (14.8%)

Second turn, 24 shots fired total and only 2 Marines dead.  The Marines will now move 6" and fire.

Quote
Attackers

Space Marines
Shots: 8
Hit Chance: 66.67%
Hits: 5.333
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 3.556
Unsaved Wounds: 1.778
Models Killed: 1.778

-----------------------------

Defenders

Defender Group
Hits: 5.333
Wounds: 3.556
Saves: 1.778
Wounds Lost: 1.778
Models Lost: 1.778 / 6 (29.6%)
Chance to fallback: 41.67%

One Tau down (but in my experience it is normally more, however I will continue to round down all statistics).

Turn 3

Now here is a problem.  Is it better to stand and shoot, fallback, or move forward and rapid fire?

We will go with the Stand and Fire concept.

Quote
Attackers

Tau Firewarriors
Shots: 6
Hit Chance: 50%
Hits: 3
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 2
Unsaved Wounds: 0.667
Models Killed: 0.667

Tau Firewarriors
Shots: 6
Hit Chance: 50%
Hits: 3
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 2
Unsaved Wounds: 0.667
Models Killed: 0.667

-----------------------------

Defenders

Space Marines
Hits: 6
Wounds: 4
Saves: 2.667
Wounds Lost: 1.333
Models Lost: 1.333 / 8 (16.7%)

Now if the Tau had moved forward and Rapid Fired they would have killed 2.667 Marines, but in return the Marine player could either Rapid Fire or a move and assault (if I was the Marine player I would go with the Move and Assault).

Now the Marines will move and rapid fire.  New distance is 8"

Quote
Attackers

Space Marines
Shots: 16
Hit Chance: 66.67%
Hits: 10.667
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 7.111
Unsaved Wounds: 3.556
Models Killed: 3.556

-----------------------------

Defenders

Defender Group
Hits: 10.667
Wounds: 7.111
Saves: 3.556
Wounds Lost: 3.556
Models Lost: 3.556 / 5 (71.1%)
Chance to fallback: 41.67%

OUCH!  Look at that deadly accuracy!  Only two Firewarriors left!  For this demonstration we are assuming automatic leadership rolls in the firing phase.

Turn 4

The Tau Firewarriors are going to move back 4" in different directions but staying within the 12" rapid fire range.

Quote
Attackers

Tau Firewarriors
Shots: 4
Hit Chance: 50%
Hits: 2
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 1.333
Unsaved Wounds: 0.444
Models Killed: 0.444

Tau Firewarriors
Shots: 12
Hit Chance: 50%
Hits: 6
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 4
Unsaved Wounds: 1.333
Models Killed: 1.333

-----------------------------

Defenders

Space Marines
Hits: 8
Wounds: 5.333
Saves: 3.556
Wounds Lost: 1.778
Models Lost: 1.778 / 7 (25.4%)
Chance to fallback: 27.78%

Even at Rapid Fire they managed to kill only 1.  We are going to assume again that this is an annihilate game.  So the Marines are going to move towards the larger squad and Rapid Fire the smaller squad.

Quote
Attackers

Space Marines
Shots: 14
Hit Chance: 66.67%
Hits: 9.333
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 6.222
Unsaved Wounds: 3.111
Models Killed: 3.111

-----------------------------

Defenders

Defender Group
Hits: 9.333
Wounds: 6.222
Saves: 3.111
Wounds Lost: 3.111
Models Lost: 3.111 / 2 (155.6%)
Chance to fallback: 41.67%

Well there goes one squad and 1 point to the Marines.  At this point I want to emphasise how much worse this would have been if it was a single 12 man squad.  You would have lost one extra firewarrior.  But honestly if it was a one 12 man squad the Marines would have assaulted instead of fired.

Turn 5

The remaining Firewarriors move back 6" and fire

Quote
Attackers

Tau Firewarriors
Shots: 12
Hit Chance: 50%
Hits: 6
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 4
Unsaved Wounds: 1.333
Models Killed: 1.333

-----------------------------

Defenders

Space Marines
Hits: 6
Wounds: 4
Saves: 2.667
Wounds Lost: 1.333
Models Lost: 1.333 / 6 (22.2%)

Now down to 5 Marines.  Granted this is a straight out gun fight and on several occasions the Tau would have had to make a leadership test for loosing more than 25% of the squad in a fire fight.  Where as the Space Marines would have had to make a few as well.

Now I don't own any Space Marine Codex's, however I believe they can have their Bolt Gun, Bolt Pistol and a CCW all on one guy these days.  So the Marines decide to charge and assault.

Quote
Attackers

Space Marines
Attacks: 15
Hit Chance: 66.67%
Hits: 10
Wound Chance: 66.67%
Wounds: 6.667
Unsaved Wounds: 3.333
Models Killed: 3.333

-----------------------------

Defenders

Tau Firewarriors
Hits: 10
Wounds: 6.667
Saves: 3.333
Wounds Lost: 3.333
Models Lost: 3.333 / 6 (55.6%)
Kills in I order:
I:4 3.333

OUCH!

Ok time for a counter attack

Quote
Attackers

Tau Firewarriors
Attacks: 3
Hit Chance: 50%
Hits: 1.5
Wound Chance: 33.33%
Wounds: 0.5
Unsaved Wounds: 0.167
Models Killed: 0.167

-----------------------------

Defenders

Space Marines
Hits: 1.5
Wounds: 0.5
Saves: 0.333
Wounds Lost: 0.167
Models Lost: 0.167 / 5 (3.3%)
Kills in I order:
I:2 0.167

Yup that is a 0 kill counter attack.  The Tau will fail their leadership roll and be destroyed in the Sweeping advance.


Why go through all of this?  Well to make a few points of course.
When fighting Marines (Imperial or Chaos) you must remember...

  • Tau are specialised
  • You need to know what type of battle you are fighting and who to make the most of your army.
  • They need to focus all of their fire on a single squad
  • Splitting your fire is ineffective and will cause you to loose the game.
  • Firewarriors should be supported by Devilfish Troop Transports
  • The added armour and fire power can help cover the Firewarrior retreat
  • With a F: 12, S:11, R: 10 armour the Devilfish is one of the best troop transports available.  
  • Add on the Disruption Pods for 5 points and you get a cover save at distances over 12" even if your in the open.  A real bonus if a Las cannon is fired at you.
  • All-ways choose to fall back, even if it requires you to forgo shooting and running instead.
  • Tau infantry are no good at assaulting and will normally always die.
  • If you don't think you can take them out in the 12" Rapid fire then fall back!
  • On your opponents turn they can move 6" and assault 6" so if you did not kill them in rapid fire then prepare for your death in assault.
  • On points less than 1500 go with smaller 6 man squads, it keeps at least half of your infantry alive encase of assaults.
  • It has the disadvantage of giving your opponent more chances to score points.  So keep them at a distance!
  • Alternate squads between Pulse Rifles and Carbine Rifles.
  • This way the Carbine Rifles can shoot 18" while moving, thus giving cover for the other retreating squad!
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 06:00:00 PM by Guest »

rob

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Re: Tau Averages
« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2010, 07:00:17 AM »
My problem with all this is that my "Roll" success rate (actually getting what I need) sucks. Lets use the D&D tiny adventures as a sample. One of my characters has a 55.71% success rate compared to your 62.50% rate. Hell, my best character had a 58.18%. The global leader has a 89.65%

Statistically speaking, you'd probably kick my space marine butt :-)
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 06:00:00 PM by Guest »

Chamookmali

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Re: Tau Averages
« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2019, 03:17:58 AM »
It is new knowledge for me. I never knew about it before.